"Today [1968] the problem of war has dwarfed all others. Science and technology have created a situation which is unique in the history of mankind....In the last 5,500 years there have been 14,531 wars, for an average of 3.18 per year; and in the last twenty years the frequency has increased to 5.2 wars a year. With these statistics, one can safely extrapolate that wars will continue.
Since achievement of the supreme objective of preventing war looks dim, statesmen are fervently pursuing the goal of keeping hostilities at the lowest possible level of intensity.... Since employment of United States military forces in the classical sense is not appropriate, or required, other components of military counterinsurgency must be used. These include psychological operations, unconventional warfare, civic action and military aid, advice, and training. These capabilities have become the primary components of counterinsurgency. Furthermore, successful counterinsurgency is as much dependent on political, social, economic, and psychological factors as upon purely military factors and sometimes more so....
Whether one is concerned with programs to alleviate political, social, or economic sources of discontent [in a counterinsurgency], with techniques of indirect influence, or with the social and political environment in which actions occur, the kind of underlying knowledge required is the understanding and prediction of human behavior at the individual, political, and social group levels....
There has been much discussion about counterinsurgency, but very little directed toward an understanding of the art of insurgency or conspiracy.... Knowledge of how to prevent internal strife is a paramount need. An essential question that must be answered is: What should be the division of effort between repression or conciliation of dissident elements in a prerevolutionary situation? To what extent should one follow a hard or soft line, or a combination of the two, and in what ways and under what conditions...?
The military might of the United States can defeat the military symptoms of insurgency: the big challenge is to insure free, stable nations. In the final analysis, this is a fight for peoples' minds."
~Thomas H. Tackaberry; American Journal of Economics and Sociology; vol 27, No 1. January , 1968. p 1-8 (available on JSTOR). (LTG Thomas Tackaberry received a Distinguished Service Cross for his service in Korea and two more for service in Vietnam. He commanded the XVIII Airborne Corps.)
How is it that this was written 40 years ago and we haven't answered some of the basic questions posed? Tackaberry suggests that the military needed research to answer the basic questions of how people view themselves within their culture, how they decided to become 'revolutionaries', and what the military could do in a counterinsurgency.
I have been thinking about Tackaberry's final assessment that the US military can defeat the "military symptoms" of a counterinsurgency, but that it was going to take a lot more than the military's conventional armament. That's old news that we have recently re-discovered.
I am drawn to consider other options than a purely military response. For example, in this "whole of government" era, where the agencies must seek ways to work together, I am left wondering what is the Department of State's counterinsurgency doctrine or strategy, exactly? And, does the USAID realize that it is joined, whether willingly is another question, to the counterinsurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan? Or, what about HHS, mentioned in the Iraq SOFA framework~ when DoD withdraws at the end of 2010, what counterinsurgency and stability actions will it take?
While these questions are certainly provocative, they are stimulated by the disturbing fact that LTG Tackaberry asked some of the same ones more than 50 years ago. Although he was interested primarily in providing the military with answers, he also recognized that more than the military was needed as a counterinsurgency response. I am just taking the logic to the appropriate conclusion.
Giving the Department of State more money is certainly a first step. But then we need a real strategy with real priorities. I understand that the DoS is ramping up its staff in Afghanistan and will make a plan. That sounds pretty good: I'm sure the Afghan desk is busy at the DoS and I know the one in DoD is swamped.
But really what I want to know is this: where is the Al Qeada desk?
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