Thursday, April 21, 2011
Google searches can predict the flu!!
"Google Flu Trends estimates flu activity for a number of countries by using aggregated search query data. The system provides users and public health officials with near real-time estimates of flu activity in their region. Traditional surveillance reports come directly from doctors and other health service professionals, sometimes with a delay of up to 1-2 weeks."
Here's the URL (or click on the heading)
http://www.google.org/flutrends/about/how.html
Sunday, July 12, 2009
War, H1N1, and Personnel Readiness
As H1N1 makes its way around the globe via public travel, and --troop deployments-- we also are apparently busy in Southern Command delivering protection kits to health care workers in Latin America (Click on the title of this blog for the story from Southcom). I have thought about this particular post for several days now because I am currently in training at a military base. Training at a military base involves heavy 'social' interaction. We eat together, do physical fitness training together, sit in a classroom, huddle around maps for harried planning discussions, congregate over a computer to produce briefing slides for the group, eat together some more, and live in a dorm-like setting. Social distancing is nearly impossible. A trip from my class room to the ladies' bathroom room requires that I touch 3 door handles/doors one way, or a total of six 'fomites' (things that carry germs by being touched repeatedly--like a door knob) for a round trip. While it might seem paranoid that I know this, apparently on this particular base there are verified cases of H1N1. We were told 22 cases when we first arrived. Yesterday, a class mate told me that someone in my class of about 125 students (but not in my particular section of 13 students) had fallen ill and was 'quarantined' to the back of the class. "WHAT?" I asked him. "Yah, the guy had to sit in the back of the class away from everyone-that's what I heard" said my colleague. We were warned, on the first day, that were we to fall ill, we would be quarantined and therefore miss more than the acceptable amount of course work with the end result of being expelled from the the course. Obviously the use of the word quarantine has strayed from its actual meaning.
There are real and potentially unpleasant results should we come down with H1N1. Most of us have been toiling for about a year now, and this is our last phase--to drop out now would be distressing. It might even mean that we would have to start all over because there are limited amounts of upcoming classes, and a limited amount of time to complete the entire course. (Therefore, my heightened sense of concern about the door handles is at least explainable, and perhaps entirely warranted. ) The dire warnings of quarantine therefore produce an incentive to not seek treatment for flu symptoms.
But getting back to the protection kits. While I completely understand the goodwill gesture of distributing protection kits, I am somewhat baffled by the institutional response of DoD. Rumors are starting to circulate about H1N1, with odd descriptions of quarantine and treatment (e.g. treatment with Tamiflu--one of the more dubious rumors) with a predictable amount of resulting confusion. This is how the military works, unfortunately.
So I went surfing through the publicly available DoD information on H1N1 is illuminating--it tells us to wash our hands, cover our nose and mouth when sneezing and stay at home if we get ill. The efficacy of face masks is unproven, therefore not among the recommended actions. Here's the DoD watchboard for H1N1: http://fhp.osd.mil/aiWatchboard/. Although we did receive a 'briefing' about H1N1 that told us that the symptoms of H1N1 are remarkably long lasting, and to cover our nose and mouths when we sneeze, we were not told about where to get more information, and the briefing concluded with the warning about quarantine.
Health communication seems to be the weak point in the DoD's response. While we are generous with our neighbors, I have to wonder if we are appropriately generous with ourselves? Is one website really an appropriate instutional response? Or, a briefing given to an officer with no public health background to present to a packed auditorium of students freshly arrived from disparate parts of the globe? Is this really the best we can do for ourselves? And, is this the appropriate level and style of communication considering the importance of troop readiness? After all, we are in the middle of two wars and troops cannot fight if they are sick. The military health system is stretched thin. Could the Public Health Service be useful here? Where is our "whole of government" response when we are trying to cope with a threat to our own national security right here at home?
While it could be argued that I'm thinking like Chicken Little and fretting over a falling sky, I suspect that our response to this relatively benign flu does not indicate a measured response should a more virulent flu appear this fall.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
The Long Silence is hereby officially broken: CNAS conference and H1N1
First, congratulations to Chris Albon for passing his oral exams, and now being ABD. Chris writes the War and Health blog.
H1N1
Second, the H1N1 epidemic. Guess who exported it to Kuwait via the war in Iraq? We did, apparently. Here's a report from Reuters: (URL http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE54M1G720090524)
KUWAIT (Reuters) - Eighteen U.S. soldiers in Kuwait have H1N1 flu, the first cases in the Gulf Arab oil-exporting region, a government official said on Sunday."(The soldiers) were confirmed with the virus upon their arrival from their country to the military base (in Kuwait)," Ibrahim al-Abdulhadi told Reuters.
Kuwait is a logistics base for the U.S. army for neighboring Iraq, where the U.S. military said there were no known cases yet of H1N1.
What are the implications of this? Obviously there are diplomatic issues, issues relating to quarantine, sovereignty and the war. Not insignificant.
CNAS
Next, I had the good fortune to attend the Center for New American Security's day-long conference on the counter-insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, the problems with North Korea, and a session tossed in about the security implications of natural resources. Kind of an odd mix. The session on natural resources completely bogged down and became dangerously close to sounding like a self-licking-ice-cream-cone argument. Senator Warner moderated the panel and was pleased to describe his previous legislation that demanded that DoD address resource issues in terms of security. The CNAS staffer leading the discussion, Sharon Burke, claimed that it was DoD's responsibility to both fight the nation's wars as well as mitigate potential future wars. (Oh, really? I didn't see that in the Constitution...I'll have to go look again). The panel consisted of two academics and one Navy Commander who is responding to the good Senator's legislation by addressing the security issues relating to resources for the upcoming QDR. Nobody else from DoE or EPA was present apparently. Is DoD really the answer to resource issues? While I don't think it's irrelevant for DoD to be engaged in the discussion, sticking a Navy commander up on the panel with no other USG representative potentially skews the argument. Obviously this problem would require a whole of government approach, but where was the rest of the government?
Quite in contrast to the resource discussion was a panel all about the North Korea problem. The panel consisted of CNAS staff and diplomats with nary a military member present. Really? So, DoD should focus on resources, but not North Korea? I asked about this at the really swell post-conference cocktail party and was told that CNAS had asked for a DoD rep, but the timing was short and none had been proffered. Too bad.
The lunch speaker was the Honorable Judith McHale who gave a terrible speech, reading in a soft voice from her notes, about public diplomacy. It was disappointing to me that when someone from the audience asked about the distinction between Public Diplomacy and Strategic Communications she couldn't answer the question. Oh oh. Obviously she has only been in the position for a couple of weeks, but I would have thought her staff might have briefed her up on what it is that her agency is supposed to do--public diplomacy. I've heard that staffs don't do that in the other governmental agencies.
Look to CNAS to enter the military health/military readiness arena shortly. The basic premise is that if you have a military force with PTSD and TBI and other health issues, readiness is declinated. The 'mavricky' team at CNAS (to borrow a term from the Palin SNL skits) has reached out to an officer who has been severely wounded and become an advocate for soldier's health while remaining in the military. He himself is somewhat mavricky and I look forward to seeing what comes of the effort.
I have much more to post--stay tuned. First I have to write a paper for Command and General Staff College.